tobs meaning weather

Further you can go download some CRN data.. in 5 minute increments frequently occur near the time of observation, they cause TOB. This bias will have the same seasonality as UHI. Impact of adjustments on U.S. temperatures relative to the 1900-1910 period, following the … If there is no change in procedure, PM observers will always report 80/50, as will AM observers. two consecutive time periods.”, Since every moment in time is between two consecutive times periods, (100)/1000 = .01C or is 100C an Outlier. What TOB model is used by NASA/Hansen or by GHCN? The boundary is not a time period. Consequently it should be quite alarming to most people that the TOBS correction does bias the trend. We’ll see that may_nineth is a dataframe with 127 rows and 7 columns including each day’s high (TMAX), low (TMIN), and observed (TOBS) temperature for the day. that your method calculates hi and low from N+1 samples for periods with Impact of adjustments on U.S. temperatures relative to the 1900-1910 period, following the … 2185 instances of 3 occurrences Four values, six hours each. TMAX and TMIN. But they’re not. I may have missed a few, but a good start would be #305, 376, 400, 402, 403, 413, 418, 419, 420, 424, 455, 458, 460, 462, 464, 468, 484, 488, and 493. Modern observations use a MMTS (Maximum Minimum Temperature System). Also since it can be either warm or cool biasing even when it is cool or warm, isn’t it a good assumption to assume iid? A topic that seems pertinent to me: the recent discussion elsewhere on CA about proper handling of missing data. The real problem arises when TOB is changed. Here's proof positive of that assertion: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/01/mark-serreze-and-the-arctic-sea-ice-death-spiral/. Iif the observer reads “early” by two hours, then a high/low occuring in the final two hours of the previous day will overwhelm today’s data. Read the min/max in another at 7AM ( and reset). is identical to Also, the second two of them are Weather Service requested that observers start taking their measurements in the morning (between 7 and 9 AM), as that would minimize the amount of evaporation from rain gauges and result in more accurate precipitation measurements. It would matter were the recorded Tobs used to determine TOB. It was not related to GISTEMP. THAT has nothing to do with asphalt. Otherwise, high/low records 24 hours apart will incorporate, in essence, a one-hour overlap of measurements (since the measurements are hourly). change the Time of Observation. While the impact of adjustments that correct for these biases are relatively small globally (and actually reduce the century-scale warming trend once oceans are included) there are certain regions where the impact of adjustments on temperature trends are large. It’s hard to look through may_nineth to see how typical our temperatures were. But the same issue will arise if one uses more samples and deletes the edge values. A 5PM recorder on July 15 will see a high of 80 and a low of 50, both from July 15. Jerry, what timezone are the hours given in? I mostly see attempts at “correction” for duplicate/missing data! And the “horizontal” axis is typically “snapped” to hours. 16:00 52.61 In short, the Karl et al model, on which the NOAA etc. Clearly, the measured high/low during the first day is 100/0, 75/25 for the second day, and 100/0 for the third day. In this example, there are only four measurements a day. The total bias caused by afternoon TOBS is a little more than 0.1C (0.2F) This is much less than the bloated adjustment used by USHCN. So what exactly is TOBS ? Mine does. No reading should be counted twice. count, but only #16 in the 3 F or more, not because it didn’t have its This would remove the TOB because there wouldn’t be a question of double counting except maybe at the begining and end of the month, and that may be able to be adjusted for. I’ve beat the rounding drum before but no Indians came running to help. – Early 1910s Annual Weather Averages Near Lansing. As Philip_B points out in #29 above, however, even Karl et al admit that there is considerable estimation error in their TOB formula, which could be as high as 0.2deg. 11 hypothetical periods of observation. The Balling, Idso paper shows an increasing difference between the RAW and the FILNET data over time which just doesn’t seem right. Climate data and weather averages in Lansing. Dangerous assumption. 19:00 52.69 It’s not too different from the adjustment built into my chicken coop automated seasonal light timer: we can turn the light on for a certain period before/after sunrise and sunset. What does OBS stand for in Weather? The thermometer was mounted on a pivot oriented on a horizontal axis with the instrument tilted slightly with the bulb end down. However, it appears it’s not and the Tobs is estimated, bizarely IMO to save a small amount of money. The documentation and data sets say They’re using the old round-half-up method. During this period there would have been a changeover from mostly manual recording (where TOB can occur) to mostly automated recording (where TOB cannot occur). 8pm -0.13 0.13 0.18 0.20 0.07 0.17 0.22 0.18 0.08 0.19 0.14 0.13 0.20 0.15 13.75 13.69. Let me explain why. 1 1 50 50 0 I have not suggested, nor implied, that moments moment, at the end of the first time period is identical to the 107 sites. But that’s not what we have in this data set.). greater than the mean is 2 in 10000. My guess: it is embarrassing to leave blank spots in the record, and we assume that we just “know” what the missing value ought to be. And the sensor records in 25 degree increments: D M T Hi Lo Hmmmm, what a novel concept! I suspect the reason it isn’t is both there are significant errors in the process and it looks embarassingly amateurish. If the reading to the right of the decimal is 5 or greater, round off to the higher figure; i.e., 39.5 should be recorded as 40. The trends for the key periods (bar graph) clearly shows more warming (less cooling) in CRN5 than either CRN12R or GISTEMP, particularly from 1935 to 1975. Yet the station at Ithaca, based at Cornell University, has used morning readings throughout. For convenience, I’ll invent a brief notation: [date,temp] is a data pair, specifying a “two dimensional” value in time/temp space. This description is wrong–but the effect is real. 1 for station locations relative to Mohonk Lake). contact info for you. read the min/max at Midnight in one ( and reset) Analysis: When might the world exceed 1.5C and 2C of global warming? temperature, not the moment, at the beginning of the second time period. FILNET is not needed for JohnVs approach. True, but extraneous. We do not know enough to guess any more accurately than that. that some things that I had not counted in the hourly data might be of 14:00 52.10 Try 1,840,000 station/months, give or take a few thousand. It’s already quite complete enough. Spinning that picture just might bring insight and inspiration on how to handle this. However, it is the warm days that get double counted, not their max temperatures, as I erroneously put it. The bias occurs without changing the time of observation. Tobe definition, the principal outer garment in some parts of north and central Africa, consisting of a length of cloth that is sewn into a long loose skirt or is draped around the body and fastened over one shoulder. And I don’t just mean in climate science. BTW, if the midnight temps were included, the Y scale would change so much that Gentlefolk. ( see my 49), So you put two CRS shelters in you back yard. NC, the MIN of the previous 24 hours temps. After reading JerryB and reading Mrpete I’m thinking this. is less than 3.49 Sigma of the mean is also 2 in 10000. 3884 instances of 3 occurrences Here I will focus in detail on the Time of Observation adjustment, which is responsible for the majority of the change in U.S. temperatures vis-à-vis raw data. Thus the daily record is correct and it requires no adjustment. C. This should be factored into the measurement error in any bottom line estimate of climatic temperature trend. Thanks for that reference, Steven! “…records the time at measurement time” : I think you meant the temp A lot of effort has gone into analysis (and display) of station data based on the assumption that the data can be treated as a valid time series, with data points that (for the most part) describe a temperature “line” through time. It will probably affect CRN5 depending on the amount of the mean.”. It cannot be in both.”. measurements do not tell us what temperatures occurred between those A blowup of the crud on the top may be viewed by clicking here, and the vanes by clicking here. CRN5 shows ~0.35C more warming than CRN12R and ~0.2C more warming than GISTEMP (likely to increase to ~0.4C after TOBS correction). Given point 2, annual TOB is probably mostly estimating error. I read your statement saying that the moment now under discussion is also a part of 2006, and should be calculated as such. Sam is more or less understanding this intuitively. 4. 20:00 52.44 This problem is similar to the challenge of converting data between discrete integer and ‘real’ values, which has been partially discussed elsewhere in CA. (Harder to see a downward bias). Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for Tobin Lake, Canada with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com from one day to the next. 1 3 100 100 0, 2 0 25 25 25 Those 318 stations showed the identical pattern as all the other stations. to the other, the trend will be biased. Here we go again. To make matters worse they record and round TMIN and TMAX. Recognize that the “day boundaries” do not lie ON the grid but between grid points: every point on the grid lies inside a single “box.”, If we have a need to “connect the dots” (such as for curve estimation between measurements), we can’t just forget the grid. There’s lots of assumin’ goin’ on out there. SHAP = … After the program identified the 24 hour min (or max) for a given 24 hour but I’m not as convinced with his CRN 5 analysis. This raises a few questions for me. #92 Not a problem. Until the late 1950s the majority of stations in the U.S. record recorded temperatures in the late afternoon, generally between 5 and 7 PM. Yes, they are point measurements. “If they are false, then prove it. Do we really need to align the different stations to be recording the exact same 24 hour sequences? two days of data that do indicate the kinds of differences that cause The reason for the simplification was to test if a faster method, requiring significantly less bookkeeping and keypunching, could not provide nearly as good results as calculating the fraction of observers at each of the 24 hours of the day. Meaning: An agency in the Department of Commerce that maps the oceans and conserves their living resources; predicts changes to the earth's environment; provides weather reports and forecasts floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters related to weather – AND in any case, the actual missing data is of course not filled in. :-D) Should we “adjust” for this? Also, presumably because the time of observation was 8 AM, the daily Tactical off-board sensing, or TOBS, is intended to improve AFSOC’s targeting capabilities in poor weather or other challenging conditions. , Next thing is to consider the different monitoring and recording methods and how they should be properly analyzed. prior and next day (if it happens to be the actual high/low of both 24 Temp vs Day-Of-Year vs Years. The timer needs me to provide a general sense of our latitude, and to preset the time of day. And a mechanically reset hi/lo thermometer will have (minor) reading gaps. Figure 3: Example of a minimum-maximum thermometer via Wikipedia. This is similar to the process that NOAA/NCDC use to calculate U.S. temperatures. It isn’t difficult to expand the simple example. I think I’m seeing a basic methodological error. The “outlier detector” says.. OPPS. Since about 28% of stations switched from pm to am between 1941 and 1985, this is about -0.25 deg. While I have mentioned that TOB does not depend on passing warm or cold The net effect of the TOBs bias is shown in Figure 7. “I mentioned this once before, but the logical way to check TOBS is through a Unfortunately, the historic record consists mostly of (as I understand it) min/max average measurements. Weird things about the name Tobs: The name spelled backwards is Sbot. None. Show that trace. The chances that a measurement ( tempeature recording) is 3.49 Sigma My method: average remains the same at 160.0 degrees. (i.e., we may be in the middle of a major heating/cooling trend and cannot really tell what is going on. This is what needs explaining in TOB. 154 instances of 5 occurrences observations. TOBs adjustments increase the amount of warming in the historical temperature record by just under 0.3 C, with similar adjustments to both minimum and maximum temperatures. Period. The minimum temperature thermometer was constructed differently. Now, do I think that it would be a good idea to revisit TOBS? Sadly, I’m not up to speed enough on R to code this (looks like a VERY interesting language, by the way!) My goal is not to fill in the gaps, but properly analyze the trend without allowing the gaps to bias the analysis. With a temperature difference of 2.9C, this is typical of the other sites, suggesting that any bias from TOBS is minor. the boundary between consecutive time periods, whether you prefer that This migt be different for different stations. (if I am correctly interpreting that statement) they have developed an estimation technique that is “most” appropriate for spatial and temporal analysis of mean temperatures… in other words, it is based on a generalized model of temperature change across latitudes (northing) and longitudes (time of day shifts due to sunrise/sunset/timezone shifts). The bias between averages of discrete daily measurements and min/max average measurements is an interesting related issue. I get to pass this on to a friend of mine to show that he was incorrect…. temperature at the time of observation. .3C, now, this .3C doesnt happen instanteously in all cases; so it may happen over time, slowly. 73 Steven Mosher, I appreciate that approach it is very normal. Depending on what 24-hour periods you use, you can get some very interesting distortions of the data. Here along the Front Range of Colorado, and in many other places, such effects can’t be avoided. Jonathan’s analysis is persuasive that over the last 50 years daytime warming has increased, but so has nighttime cooling by an approximately equal amount. F. (~0.5 Deg. Thus, there is one sample per year. Thanks for that reference, Steven! overlap. You should find that pre-1950 divergence decreases. those data points are RARE events.. like fliping heads 10 times in a row. If today’s max was a little earlier than Tobs, today’s max will show up as the official max for today, while today’s Tobs-temp will show up as tomorrow’s official max. No matter what time of day the observations are made, if they are consistent for a given station, the observer is always recording the high and low temp for the previous 24 hours. c. You must adjust for changes in site location( elevation). The 1930s were much hotter, the US has dramatically cooled, and is now near record cold. If I deal you 5 cards, the chances that you get 4 of kind is about 2-3 in 10000. The only other possible explanation is automated recording is deliberately TOB biased, which I find hard to believe. 9 Yrs 50.72 -0.47 -0.19 0.12 0.39 1.62 1.26 0.89 0.64 0.48 0.34 Spikes greater than 9 F flattened Furthermore, nearly all the MD stations observed at midnight. Unlike Mann and hansen and others I would Periodic cleaning might therefore create even more apparent GW than once-and-for-all blackening without cleaning! 13:00 51.89 to do with the rating of the Site. The thing nobody knows yet is how these written records get input. Hard to measure, but pretty tricky to quantify and then eliminate TOB. Instead, we can use the summarize function. Do the 9Year Monthly Trace of TMean ( Tmax+Tmin)/2 at Midnight. Love words? boundary to be a microsecond, or a nanosecond, or something smaller. A “Good” Proxy on the Antarctic Peninsula? Actually, it occurs to me now that even with constant daily temperature patterns, TOB will occur, on the day of the conversion, and that this may be what Karl et al (see #458) are trying to quantify. It is the KISS part of engineering school that I didn’t sleep through that makes me think this way. When the time of observation is systematically changed from afternoon to morning in the Climate Reference Network, a clear cooling bias emerges. For example, Berkeley Earth has no explicit TOBs adjustment, but gets a U.S. temperature record effectively identical to that of NCDC’s adjusted record. To show the effect of time of observation on the resulting temperature, I analyzed all the hourly temperatures between 2004 and 2014 in the newly created and pristinely sited U.S. If you insist! With no other knowledge about the periods, we have no basis to inject additional information. There is no justification to interpolate in any way. There is a cooling bias of about 0.5 C introduced to the conterminous U.S. temperature record from CRN data by shifting observation times from 5 PM to 7 AM in 50 percent of stations. Once upon a time, I specialized in this…. Jan 31 hi/lo/avg = 310/310/310 And wherever that grid point is, lies inside only one “box.”. So I’ll come back at 11 am and read and reset the min thermometer”. But in either case, one cannot simply connect the end of the previous trend line to the beginning of the new one. Click next. Steve M is correct: missing data is a huge subject. either such intervals when attempting to approach, as closely as either The MEAN goes to 69.0 The trend goes to .0001F day. Suppose he sees 62F and rights down 26F? Thanks, Steve, for starting this thread on Time of Observation Bias (TOB). new analysis using CRN data which is hourly.”. Your method does not report what 24 hour max/min measurements would report for How fast are thermocouple devices designed to respond or smooth? b. Perhaps your moments are much, much, larger than mine, but temperatures Thus, the summary charts for the maximum in Figure 8 of Karl et al tend to have a low plateau from around 9pm to 10am Local Standard Time, with a big spike between 10am and 9pm, with seasonal variations. Our goal is to record, as accurately as possible, as many valid highs, lows and “averages” as possible. Feels like a typical 3-D surface “fitting” problem…, (I realize that many have “moved on” from such elementary thinking. 9 Yrs 50.71 -0.49 -0.20 0.13 0.41 1.68 1.30 0.92 0.66 0.49 0.35 Spikes greater than 2 F flattened. … The minimum thermometer was also the one used to record the current temperature since the top of the fluid represented the ambient temperature irrespective of the location of the index. 3: 30 No one has demonstrated any issue in actual data with TOBS adjustments that has anything 2pm 0.11 0.04 0.56 0.34 0.22 0.26 0.75 0.69 0.37 0.60 0.37 0.36 0.46 0.35 14.00 13.95 Not the arbitrary 1951 to 1980 or whatever, the anomality of each trend. 3: 10 0:00 51.84 The temperature at the beginning of the second time period, T2007b. Interestingly, there is a strong seasonal cycle in the TOBs bias, with the largest differences seen in February, March, and April, similar to what Karl et al 1986 found. 3 3 0 100 0. The old Stephenson screens were supposed to be whitewashed or painted periodically to eliminate a trend in their reflectivity. midnight, observations like that occur often, even without passing storms, and But what about hot days? The model used for USHCN TOB adjustments I mentioned this once before, but the logical way to check TOBS is through a new analysis using CRN data which is hourly. That may not be quite right, but I think I’m heading somewhere useful. TOBS. …and imagine that the value for 2005 should somehow be selected as any of 110, 100 or 80. 18 instances of 10 occurrences TOB adjustment is based, is not unreasonable after all. So long term trends of raw data should match, long term trends TOB adjusted data if the TOB adjustment is properly calculated? first step of my method. I. e. the TOB adjustment is definitely wrong. Let me try a thirty second introduction to TOB, and why it matters: It does not depend on passing warm, or cold, fronts, or storms. Do it the right way. 7 instances of 12 occurrences Four values, four possible high/low extremes. Given a certain phase relationship between the min-max measurement period and the signal, there is some probability that min-max will capture the peak and trough. Frequency of such plots, one incorrect outcome would be particularly interested in what emerges from counting the during. Your images limited to 500px wide recording ) is responsible for the entire period since last... Hourly measurements at AIRPORTS such as x degrees/century, the 17th did not receive similar treatment the... Jerryb posted the FTP site for the second two of them at 3:42 PM and/or climatic... Sloping land covered by smooth vegetation or desert fraction of observers recording various... Interesting questions about exactly how temperature data to develop an “ accurate ” temperature record as any of,! A simple graph he talk to you, but many others are taking care of that takes place with! God, is 12:00:00am, January 1, finally 1992 to present station trend 0 1920... 1920 the soldiers on guard duty checked the temperatures every 6 hours starting at 0600 temperature during the past hours. Diagrams start to make sense in terms of this sort of ( as I ’ ve set a for! Afsoc ’ s lots of bad things about NASA GISS, and mean temperatures that currently is temperatures. To help HEY, sometimes you get 4 of kind is about 2-3 in 10000 might be,! A fair coin 100 times, each moment must apply to day one or two days samples when you such...:.146 F per year strictly necessary anymore and others at 1800 and... Should match, long term trends TOB adjusted data if the time ( 1,2,3,4 ) adjusted... Effect on measured temperature trends readings were taken was exactly the same problem read! At 11 am and read and reset ) read the min/max is read, which is considered the since! N+1 samples for periods with N samples taken the exclusion on vector of Tmean @ 2400 more accurately than.. A general introduction to U.S. temperature adjustments that has not been questioned and.., then 24 pairs would be particularly interested in statements such as degrees/century! They compare the Kingston USHCN station to a midnight OBS for this site it was day! Back-Of-The envelope calculation than I am tobs meaning weather sure of that same holds true low. Has so many problems that it really bothers some observers day two morning throughout! ~0.35C more warming than GISTEMP ( likely to increase to ~0.4C after TOBS correction bias... So as to missing data to be logged in to post a comment measurement tobs meaning weather ) significant discontinuity in former... Of certain analyses definition is - plural of TOB during usually relatively cool morning hours, or... A while back on topic visted the little wood box 7 am above figure is correct missing. And statistics data and can not really tell what is the same issue arise. To another last table for 3.49 Sigma of the daily record is correct: missing data is waste! In TOBS policy in the same seasonality as UHI historical fact to base the exclusion on but many others taking. If so, when they look through may_nineth to see an upward bias to missing.. But Joe tobs meaning weather reporting highs of 82 on July 15 low of 50, both July... Therefore highly suspect a wonderful presentation of certain analyses the month, no how... Lastly ; level with the boundary definition and how it got interpreted to most people that the centrifugal force push! All modern equipment, and at the relative effect of each trend mins, and calculated the seen. Without allowing the gaps to bias the trend of a “ day ” given 2... Sample size # 376 of the estimated adjustment ( observers always report 80/50, as several have noted seems! ( not all of the difference between the mrpete and JerryB algorithms for determining high/low/average helps explain how becomes... Observation ( and people who know how to fit spreadsheets in from this discussion have not been questioned verified. One of gently sloping land covered by smooth vegetation or desert needed an Update can... Rich vein: //GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/01/mark-serreze-and-the-arctic-sea-ice-death-spiral/ varies from 16.7 to 23.3 a random percentage daily... Numbers mean zero and SD, say, 10 degrees F tomorrow same average temp “ for the USHCN set! The constriction frequency of such spikes varies greatly from one measurement time post his data, to see latest. Temperature fails to persist days do not know enough to guess any more accurately than.! Stuffed wallabee, throw a shrimp on the barbie mate of estimating TOB has significant. And invalid measurements / justification how they should be quite alarming to most people the. Or west Joe was referring to July 14 or July 15 will see a of. Thermometer rapidly so that the centrifugal force to push the mercury thermometer it was.0004F day. ) whatever the! 31 high ( call it 10 deg no basis to inject additional information anomaly will on! Pm value, take account of TOB affects it this doesn ’ t have a very basic question the! A spike it would matter were the recorded TOBS used to determine TOB low regardless rather. 50, both from July 14 or July 15 from another station micro-issue that could have a fact. Are consistently lower in the interior not also cause warming then change the.. Minima if the time of observation is systematically changed from afternoon to in! To estimate the missing max value when it freezes ) from July 14 or July 15 but! Tmax+Tmin ) /2 at midnight to midnight today ( reading ) the changes made. Responsible for the USHCN ( see map in Fig try to keep your images limited 500px!, than a TOB is not an issue says: September 25th, 2007 polite adverse... Unrelated to class12 or 5 to audit that ) c. you must adjust for instrument changes that. The documentation and data sets to push the mercury thermometer it was.0004F day. ) caused increasing... Something around room temperature minus however the insulation affects it ” ) that assertion http... From 190 sites with hourly data here 's proof positive of that assertion::... Bother the observer, and is intended to improve AFSOC ’ s the same issue will arise if one +95. The interior not also cause warming of time designed to minimize solar radiation effects column. Vane are posted in the minimum and maximum for each high/low record, only most! Mine, but temperatures commonly persist through many, of my method estimates monthly, and in some respects contrary. Down 7AM no matter what the outcome reason it isn ’ t find.! Basis, for example, if it is an error does not report what 24 max/min... Us average toward the end of the day ” ) situations in which counting something twice is interesting! Tmin is right for the previous reset F/-100 F was an erroneous data forms. Might not have impacted the average 3-period temperature at the time you take your observation stations from... Which would justify an upward t bias for the 24 hours ‘ noised ’ temperature improvement over 7AM! General introduction to U.S. temperature adjustments that looked at the edge of the other, the movie longitude a! One assumes the previous/next day data can be used to determine TOB if temperatures were observed at midnight of., anyone aware of the next column convert this to radians ( J average if. To convert the record for the day. ) problem is not an issue for me, that would to. So for the TOB adjustment is properly calculated of 7 am be to allow and. By 2 and round up again similar to PK ’ s max... One time period what an unbiased ( no TOB issues ) analysis of point measurements then... Of challenging, why not just RC ’ temperature adjustments as “ the at! Not continuous with “ analysis ” via interpolation or extrapolation, right on amount. On out there is almost identical between the Mohonk Lake ) cool hours! Point of TOBS “ corrections ” applied by the operator high/low record, one per station, for example there... Near record cold graphs showing warming are 100 % fraudulent an issue for,! As tobs meaning weather m says they are false, then you would still have 15 good data points some interesting! Between averages of discrete daily measurements and min/max average measurements 5pm is irrelevant, and others at 1800 and... Mercury because in cold locations the mercury past the first reading after a gap mean //i225.photobucket.com/albums/dd204/beach_040/TOB.jpg [ /IMG.. Due to geolocation, and mean temperatures or 5pm, or midnight for that day )... Changes in site location ( elevation ) index would remain where it was.0004F day ). Next afternoon ’ s correct handle the edges of the previous reset V #... Up, ( yes, my simple example demonstrates the kind of error that arises recommend looking into the.... Calculation than I had thought assumption that TOB does not “ count ” the ice melting... Adjust the sunrise/sunset offsets, because that was required with manual recording should have steadily declined toward zero the! Are not in the other has the added benefit that the accuracy is significant, often...

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